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EV TradingSports betting analysis · AFL / NRL / NBL

Two people and a ledger

EV Trading is Nic and Phil. We met on a quantitative trading internship at a global market-making firm, where the daily job was pricing things slightly better than the person on the other side of the trade. Sports betting markets looked worse-priced than the ones we worked, so we built the model that now writes our ledger.

You won't find our faces on this site, and that's deliberate. Tipster pages lead with grinning founders, cars and pool decks because the person is the product and the record can't carry the pitch. We'd rather show you the desk and be judged by a CSV file. Surnames aren't up yet either; the ledger doesn't need them to be checkable.

The desk does the talking: one model, two markets, every price written down.

What EV Trading is not

We are not a bookmaker. We never accept, place or hold bets, we can't take deposits, and nothing here is financial advice. We sell analysis: our opinion of a price, published before the game and settled in public afterwards.

The incentive answer

Every service in this industry gets asked "if it works, why sell it?", and most answer with a story. Ours is arithmetic. These are shallow markets and stake sizes cap out fast, so a subscription is worth more than the marginal bet the model can't place. You're entitled to stay sceptical; the record page exists for exactly that reader.

The money answer

No bookmaker pays us anything. No affiliate links, no referral bonuses, no "sign up with our code". Subscriptions are the entire business, which keeps the incentive pointed the only direction it should be: at the record.

Contact: [email protected]. We read everything; replies can take a day on game days.